Nigeria at Crossroads & the Way Forward. Re; The Crumbling of Nigerian “Christians Genocide” Narrative, By Umar Ardo – Part 8

By Olusegun R. Babalola

This DR. Umar Ardo’s disconcerting article, that cannot be thoroughly addressed in a single article, was brought to by notice by a Nigerian nationalist and federalist, Madu Bright O. Alwell. He noted; “We respectfully seeking a detailed response …” This has led 8-part response: The Nigerian Proxy Clash of Civilizations, Dr. Umar Ardo’s Role in the Proxy Clash of Civilization, Dr. Umar Ardo as Civilizational Strategist of Moral Violence, Understanding DR. Umar Ardo in the Age of Civilizationalism, DR. Umar Ardo’s Moral Violence and Kafkaesque Natural Justice Pretentions, Natural  Justice Rightly Understood; Case for Dialogue Between 2-Civilizations, The Fundamental Challenges; Neo-Crusade Between Muslims and Christians; and Nigeria @ Crossroads & the Way Forward. The general purpose is civic self-understanding of our problematic challenges towards a peaceful resolution and if possible, conversion.

“Nigeria is at a crossroads” as Dr. Ardo wrote in his July 29, 2025 article A Call to Halt the Vilification of the Fulani in Nigeria. Ardo clearly noted; “Our unity and survival depend on our ability to treat one another with fairness, respect and justice – not based on ethnicity, but on our shared humanity.”

We are at crossroads today because of the civilizational omission of the unitarist adoption of the American system and the continuity of the two publics inherited by the First Republic. These led to pan-tribalism, prebendalism, and prebendal pan-tribalism that further transmogrify the 2-civilizational – Afro-Islamic Civilization (AIC) and Indigenous-African Civilization (IAC) – realities into religious competitions.

We have de-constructed Ardo’s “truth” in his 2021 article Fulanis’ Fears of Restructuring that it is the clash of civilizations between our 2-civilizations; Afro-Islamic (AI) and Indigenous-African (IA) civilizations and not clash between “religious extremists are mainly in the North” who “raise armed revolts, killings and destructions against the country in the name of religion;” and “ethnic extremists mainly in the South” who are the propagators of the Fulbe “demonization narrative” that is the primal stumbling block to restructuring Nigeria’s “dysfunctional system.” In agreement with Ardo, we have also seen that the “neo-Crusade” narrative is a distraction. This is particularly so when we shift from “religious identity” to the civilizational lens of “way-of-life” centered on diverse notions of a good life – necessary for creating a shared purpose towards our common manifest destiny.

We have also seen that what has kept the “neo-Crusade” narrative afloat is existence of 2-publics; moral/primordial public and the colonial amoral/civic public, and not one like all successful civilizational-states, where the subjugation of the latter by the former, according to Peter Ekeh, is the genesis of “Many of Africa’s political problems,” especially the Nigerian fundamental problems such as pan-tribalism, prebendalism and the insecurity prone prebendal pan-tribalism, all have led to a crossroad with four options; “neo-Crusade” religious war; a more conscious and brutal clash of civilizations; disintegration of Nigeria (though some of us don’t like this); or devotion to the Nigerian manifest destiny based on the Nigerian Dream and African renaissance and leadership.

The Crossroads

The first road leads to violent and artificial Abrahamic “neo-Crusade” (religious war) between Muslims hawks and the Christian hawks, that would draw us back to the dark Medieval age for foreign exploitation and transactions. This would be devastating for Africa and both civilizations. The unpredictable consequences are too may. This is a sure road to Congo. The second road, is a deepened violent “clash of civilization”, shorn of religious colorations, tribalism, prebendalism and prebendal pan-tribalism between the AIC devoted to Sharia law’s absence of a wall between religion and the State; and the IAC committed to FoRB. This could lead to two possible results. One is what Dr. Ardo fears the most for his Fulbe people; “the unfortunate human catastrophe in Rwanda in 1994.” The other is IAC’s erasure or what Olusegun Obasanjo had called “Fulanization and Islamization” of Nigeria in May 2019. This would not be the first time AIC would over-run an IAC with its FoRB in history.

The third road, is Nigeria’s violent or peaceful disintegration which could also lead to two possible roads or types of splits, with diverse types for the two types. One is the split along civilizational lines leading to two civilization-states – AIC with Sharia law’s absence of a wall between religion and the State; and a large federalist and restructured IAC’s state, committed to FoRB, large enough to survive the precarious multipolar order as a haven for all global African people. In this case, clash of civilizations would continue along the border with much ease for cooperation and dispute settlements. The other is splitting of both civilizations into warring smaller and ethnical states with disputes over border lines, continuity of a more chaotic clash of civilizations, and a general chaos for foreign exploitation and transactions. The fourth road (discussed all along) is “dialogue between civilizations” based on the themes of “natural justice” (DoR); the Nigerian Dream and African renaissance/leadership towards a profitable and civilizational restructuring that would end the two-publics, re-constitutionalize the native rulers and further the moral education of the society, especially, through customary jurisprudence to secure a health continuity of our inherited civilization/tradition in modernity and de-centralize and domesticate the colonial Leviathan.

Speaking for the IAC, we are ready for any of the four options (Nigeria at crossroads), though we prefer the fourth and at worst a peaceful third. Wars are not only fought and won with weapons and ideology, but the unflinching and indomitable commitment of a purified human will, like that demonstrated by Winston Churchill against Hitler. And as John Apollos Maton concluded in his July 31, 2025 article “Response to Dr. Ardo’s “Call to Halt Vilification of Fulani in Nigeria;” “The ball is in their court.” As Putin stated “the world is on its way to a synergy of civilization-states … Nobody should betray their civilization; this is the path towards universal chaos.”

On the fourth option, Nigerian state is broken and needs urgent unpacking and re-packing, which is beyond the prebendal ruling class (party in government and the opposition). As Ardo stated in his article, “Fulani fear of restructuring;” the “earlier all Nigerians cleanse their hearts of such religious and ethnic vices the better for us”; that “only truth that can set hearts free of such maladies”; that “Nigeria must be restructured so as to survive for all Nigerians wheresoever and whosoever they may be” and that “we must treat one another with truth, understanding, decency and respect.” However, Dr. Ardo should pay more attention to the clash of civilizations and not be swayed by the deception of religious wars.

Unpredictable and Transactional Multipolar Order by Civilizational-States

Nigeria’s “crossroads” is urgent.  More alarming, in our precarious era and in addition to our self-inflicted crossroads, is the emergence of a highly competitive and unpredictable multipolar world (dis)-order caused by transactional and multipolar competition between super-power civilizational-states (US, China and Russia), threatening the though asymmetrical and imperfect post-WWII rules-based liberal international order authored by the U.S.-led multilateral institutions, free trade norms, democratic promotion, and rules-based governance and subjecting the peripheral states, like Nigeria, to the mercy of the civilizational super-powers.

This is leading to a global consensus devoted to domestic and foreign reforms among middle-powers, who unlike Nigeria (and most states in the Global South), benefited from the imperfect post-WWII rules-based liberal international order. Whilst this may have accounted for Ardo’s civilizationalism devoted to the survival of the Fulberic-AIC, we have also seen that Nigeria ought to rise up to this occasion with firm and strategic domestic and foreign reforms. Why? As a peripheral state with IAC-AIC tensions, it risks being pulled apart like Ukraine—Western investment vs. Chinese infrastructure (BRI projects) or Russian appeals to anti-colonialism. As these powerful transactional civilizational states can easily transact business with any disgruntled faction.

Nigeria’s dilemma, domestic and foreign, is indirectly provided by the Moroccan Head of Government, Aziz Akhannouch, also at Davos 2026, that “We cannot build a geopolitical future on a fragile society… so we have decided to first protect our society and population.” Another good example is Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 launched in 2016, through the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has moved to de-Wahhabize, “uncouple” the state from religious establishment and promote “moderate Islam” to modernize. Today, the program is in its third and final phase of implementation.  For us to avoid being on the menu perpetually on the multipolar table, we too must reform our highly fragile state, and before an effectively political-economic reform, we must put our house in order. As Bill Clinton once said; “harmony requires difference.” Nigeria must make a choice. Now.

Case for Comprehensive Reforms or Restructuring towards Nigerian Manifest Destiny

How could we avoid being the perpetual menu on the table? There is the urgent need for Nigeria to adjust to the changing global dynamics with a strategy of our own that leaves no one behind. Or else we would go the way of Ukraine or Venezuela or Congo. The most important now is the necessity of restructuring or political-economic reforms. Then the call for a “clear strategy” is spot-on.

On civilizationalism, we can create a 2-civilizations civilizational-state devoted based on our fidelity to our civilizations on one hand and on the other hand to the Nigerian Dream which combines the 2-cicilizations towards the African renaissance and leadership.  Dr. Ardo’s reorganization of knowledge/power should be towards this end. I would like Ardo to give it a try. We need it. Both our civilizations are concerned with the subject of their healthy continuity in modernity. The re-organization should have been based on a responsible balance of Fulbe’s AIC values, interest and power with that of Nigeria through a constructive dialogue between the IA and IA civilizations, in his words, based on “mutual respect.”

The goal is a strong society that would not only sustain compliance to rule of law, through living civilizations that emphasizes meritocracy, by being built on traditions/civilizations, but that would domesticate our colonial Leviathan into an accountable, a stable and predictable limited government for economic development necessary for African renaissance and leadership. The success of such a dialogue would lead to such a Win-Win restructuring for the 2-Civilizations. As Nikolai Danilevsky noted “No civilization can call itself supreme, the most developed one.” And as Putin acknowledged that civilizations pluralism as “a multifaceted complexity” which “supplements and enriches the others.”  We can enrich each other.

This task would entail strategic processes of civilizing our civilizations against post-modern moral relativism and nihilism; decolonizing the Doctrine of Repugnancy (DoR) whilst avoiding destructive atavism in the name of fear of civilizational erasure; and most of all, robust and constructive dialogue between 2-Civilizations, fundamentally based on the commonsensical “natural justice” principles, especially towards the re-education of the society. This ought to be the basis of the understanding of the core principles of restructuring. As Ardo noted, “that currently Nigeria is at a crossroads. Our unity and survival depend on our ability to treat one another with fairness, respect and justice – not based on ethnicity, but on our shared humanity … Let us not fall into the trap of collective hatred. Let us rise, as one people, with one destiny, building a nation where no Nigerian is oppressed or vilified because of where they come from.”

The replacement of colonial policy within DoR with the de-colonial policy, ought to be the fundamental principle of restructuring. For example, the warped and stupid presidential rotational system, which allows for periodic regional domination, fear and in-equity could be easily resolved by a system of collegiate presidency based on the Swiss paradigm. This would put an end to the fear-of-being-dominated over and the will-to-dominate-others, as the college would be composed of the best minds from all regions. (see Win-Win Deal; If-I-were-the-President-Challenge [1]). There is also the need to constitutionalized moral and primordial public (natural rulers), and the decolonize the 2-publics of the moral/primordial public, and the amoral/colonial civic public by collapsing them into one single moral and civilizational public. This would also further strengthen customary jurisprudence and local governance as powerful schools for “natural justice.”(see Polycentricity and De-colonizing the Two Publics[2]).

Since crude atavistic reactions against this colonial DoR and the anti-intellectual denigration of IAC/AIC notions of natural justice without commonsensical preservation of the natural and universal theme of “natural justice” have led to moral relativism and then nihilism, there is the need for a comprehensive re-education of our societies (see Janus Effects and Nourishing Character with Institutions[3]), especially with respect to the awareness of the global dangers towards the exceptional Nigerian manifest destiny. For the two civilizations, the Nigerian State stands or falls based on this principle, with diverse implications for the two civilizations.

With civilizational realism we would establish Nigeria as a medium-power with civilizational gravitational pull in Africa, in the Global South and the world. Our goal should be neutrality in great-power games. As earlier stated, our focus should be Nigerian manifest destiny as middle-power civilizational-state; a microcosm of the African realities with Indigenous-African (IA) and Afro-Islamic (AI) civilizations; a force in the making of a global liberal order of “One World, Many Civilizations”, and a haven and the pride of all global Africans. This is the basis of our civilizational gravitational pull by nature. A wonderful gift from God.

This is because multipolarity isn’t inherently “monstrous” in itself, as the Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever stated at DAVOS 2026, but rather the lack of order during the transition is, meaning that the transition to multipolarity does not have to be chaotic (“monstrous”) if it is managed correctly, but warns that currently, it is leading to a “time of monster” because the old, rules-based international order is breaking down before a stable one has been established. Nigeria could be a powerful force is establishing democratized global power/order during this precarious transition helping to generate harmony between super-powers. For example, if the Global South unites. Nigeria, with its population and resources, could lead an African bloc in BRICS+, challenging both Western and Sino-Russian dominance.

What is rather interesting is that Nigerian manifest destiny doesn’t only entails resolving the proxy competition driven by civilizationalism against erasure by the 2-Civilizations towards national integration and development, but also entails teaching and admonishing cooperation, moderation, humanity and harmony between all global civilizational-states towards a more peaceful and predictable world of “One World, Many Civilizations.” If we could resolve our clash of civilizations, we would be able to assist in the moderation of the global clash of civilizations. This is even more manifest in classic natural right (CNR), well suited to resolve much of the emerging highly competitive, transactional and unpredictable multipolar world order, where super-powers and civilizational-states like U.S., China and Russia are all driven by civilizationalism. This is so because the themes of CNR with themes such as virtue, hierarchy (e.g., rule by the wise), and the pursuit of the good life, can be found in all civilizations. As Strauss argued, the existence of diverse local conventions (nomos), or in this case, of civilizations doesn’t disprove the existence of CNR, but instead posits that all conventions are “diluted” or compromised CNR through conventions to become effective in a real-world regime (politeia) essentially attempting to realize a single, central natural principle, though they diverge due to specific circumstances whilst being shaped by the “unpredictable inventiveness” of human affairs and political necessity.

On civilizational self-reliance, based on coupling civilizationalism with ideology to build a vibrant and large middle-class “equality of condition,” we would need to revive and modernize local traditions for governance, like merit-based systems akin to Confucianism towards self-reliance, a term that Ardo likes. On ideology, we could begin with the Afenifere Diaspora Discussion Roundtable’s (Vol 1 Issue 2/March 23, 2024 – edited by Professor Seun Kolade) corrections of the RUGA policy. Unlike Ardo’s vast and free ranches as a condition for restructuring, Afenifere Roundtable argues for a more business-oriented and responsible template for ranching, which includes “equitable land rental systems,” “respect to land ownership and community rights,” restructuring towards a “decentralized approach to agricultural policy,” and inclusivity with “other forms of livestock farming.”

We could begin by adding this enlightened ranching option to the “Security and Economic Reforms” which entails (1) national railway grid connecting all local governments for rapid industrialization and technological revolution (2) renewable solar energy and (3) real-estate developments for a very large middle class. “Railways, solar energy and real-estate development provide higher “return on investment,” “the greatest income and employment multipliers in the economy.” Unlike, agriculture which “accounts for 38 percent of our employment and 24 percent of our national income,” (Justice Faloye, Afenifere Publicity Secretary) three “economy movers” can “stimulate economic growth, industrialization and employment.” “ (see Win-Win Deal; If-I-were-the-President-Challenge [4]) These – economic restructuring must precede political restructuring if the latter is to work. With these, Trump’s era which means less U.S. aid but more opportunities for deals—think energy partnerships without ideological strings.

The idea is to maximize the Nigerian manifest destiny and exceptionalism- especially, the largest African population and the 2-Civilizations (IAC/ AIC), with their disparate traditions, which manifest in the whole Africa but in Nigeria on the macro-scale with equally. Population sizes are key factors for developments and international status in this age of civilizationalism. This is the heart of Nigerian leadership of the African renaissance in this 21^st Century. This is the Nigerian Dream.

Case for Dr. Ardo’s Conversion

In sum, this is a compelling wake-up call, substantiating the death of unipolar liberalism without romanticizing alternatives. It’s politically incorrect in calling out multipolar hypocrisy and Global South passivity, but only civilizational betrayers would favour political correctness over civilizational survival. As Putin stated “Nobody should betray their civilization; this is the path towards universal chaos.”  Political correctness, without honesty is that path towards universal chaos. Based on these, one may appreciate Dr. Ardo intelligence. He would not betray his civilization, just as i wouldn’t betray mine. I respect him for his ingenious ability to re-organize knowledge/power as well as his unflinching fidelity to and awareness of his civilization. Generally, I commend Dr. Ardo for his audacious dialectics between his Fuble-AIC and ideology, what I deplore is his repugnant and exclusive Fulberic values, interests and power and his Kafkaesque natural justice pretentions.

Ardo’s AIC focus might be myopic, but ignoring civilizational divides (as in Nigeria’s history of ethnic strife) risks implosion—better to integrate them federally, like the U.S. did with its dualisms. After all, no contending Nigerian politician is yet to respond publicly to the ongoing global danger in the era of transactional civilizationalism coupled with economic protectionism; and proposed possible strategies, nor could they genuinely resolve these complex Nigerian challenges via handshake (harmony) between the 2-Civilizations. And even if they understood the need for the handshake, they cannot help themselves, being neck-deep in pan-tribalism, prebendalism and prebendal pan-tribalism. These old-school politicians are not interested in harmony, but rather how to exploit religious, tribal and civilizational differences to power within a broken system. The best minds out of them, who love to be seen on media pages, are only interested in giving a warped, broken and outdated system legitimacy rather than civilizational unpacking and repacking to survive a dangerously precarious age. They appear like pendants to justify a democratic system.  These modernist politicians are still mostly lost within the post-WWII liberal fundamentalist labyrinth with their eyes closed to the realities of civilizationalism. They cannot help themselves,, we need to peacefully help and retire them.

Ardo isn’t like any of these clowns. He is still far more conscious about the realities of civilizationalism that the clowns on the Nigerian political stage, both the party in power and the opposition. Thus, we must commend Ardo for daring – for his willingness to discuss, against semtende (reticence) as part of the pulaku code. The fact that he is writing to activate pulaku in English and on restructuring and “neo-Crusade” narrative, regardless of what appear to be a scripted master plan, is a telling sign of his wiliness to engage in profitable public discuss towards the resolution of the Nigeria challenges, especially the issue of restructuring. His engagement is a telling sign of hope. If we had more people like him in all the traditions/civilizations in Nigeria, with a large dose of moderation and genuine compassion, we may have been able to negotiate both the Nigerian Dream and African renaissance/leadership.

However, Dr. Ardo and his likes should consider a larger optic of dualism for their civilization and the civilizational-state with 2-Civilizations towards the Nigerian manifest destiny; African leadership and renaissance, and the Nigerian Dream. Nigeria could then be a force in the making of a global liberal but civilizational and predictable order of “One World, Many Civilizations”, (a modification of King Charles III “One World, Many Traditions,” the slogan of the King’s International Network for Traditional Building, Architecture and Urbanism [INTBAU]) and a haven and the pride of all global Africans.

How does Nigeria operationalize this? Pragmatism is hopeless, especially in our case, without the creation of a Win-Win political movement towards these ends, based on handshake between representatives of the 2-Civilizations towards a much larger dialogue and cooperation. This may well be the last attempt to save Nigeria.

These are not new ideas to Ardo. In 2025 “A Call to Halt the Vilification of the Fulani in Nigeria“, Ardo conclusively called “for a higher national standard of unity, responsibility and justice” Ardo advised the promotion of “dialogue and understanding. Host town halls, publish balanced perspectives and build bridges.”

Conclusively, I reach out to a converted Dr. Umar Ardo, the Nigerian Albert Einstein, with a handshake from the IAC. let’s stop all these diversions and begin handshake across our civilizations forthwith. For only a political movement/party by, of and for “natural justice” can retire the present Nigerian prebendal political class, and if possible, convert some of them. That is their secret Achilles heel. Unfortunately, we are running out of time.

[1]https://obalufonics.com/win-win-deal-if-i-were-the-president-challenge/

[2] https://obalufonics.com/janus-effects-and-nourishing-character-with-institutions/

[3] https://obalufonics.com/janus-effects-and-nourishing-character-with-institutions/

[4]https://obalufonics.com/win-win-deal-if-i-were-the-president-challenge/